Economic Outlook

Worries Remain, But Growth Should Prevail

After a roller coaster of expectations in 2009 – from depression to recovery – many investors remain skeptical of sustained growth. Our view is, recovery is in place, at least for a few quarters. Deflation seems off the table for now and we do not see an inflation problem in core prices for the time being

Download PDF

Equity Portfolios

Ride Could Be Bumpy, But Stocks Expected To Outperform

The S&P 500 total return over the last 10 years was disappointingly near -1.0% per year (while the composite of Dynamic Equity portfolios we manage for our clients performed well above that result). The “aha” from this experience comes in two pieces – that valuation matters no matter the time frame, and that in planning for your financial future and portfolio strategy, you cannot just “build it and leave it”. The expensive stock prices of ten years ago had a lot to do with the weak returns for the decade.

Download PDF

Fixed Income Portfolios

Bond Market Returning To Normalcy

The 2009 bond market was a study in extremes, the result of a receding economy and the ensuing impact of government actions to stimulate recovery. Investor sentiment shifted from fear of economic collapse to expectations of recovery. This shift in sentiment resulted in a change of appetite for risk. Investors initially craved the extreme safety of U.S. Treasury bonds, but this rapidly gave way to a hunger for the higher yields offered by corporate and municipal bonds.

Download PDF