Economic Outlook

Storm Over Central Bank Plans Much Ado About Nothing

Investors are gradually coming to believe that growth will remain modestly positive. They’re also coming to terms with volatility – a bad news release for every couple of good ones. They now even tolerate arguments that unemployment might fall further, the U.S. dollar isn’t collapsing and the U.S. economy is globally competitive. This is all about 180 degrees from the scares of recent years.

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Equity Portfolios

Weak June, Robust Quarter, Very Strong Year...So Far

In spite of a sub-par economic recovery, profits continue to grow and margins have remained quite high, even if they now show signs of easing. And profits matter, now more than ever, as valuations have moved from deeply attractive to the “fair” range.

We remain focused on discerning the future level of earnings growth, in the U.S. and abroad, as one of the likely key determinants of future equity-market returns. Along with valuation, of course.

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Fixed Income Portfolios

Bulls, Bears And...“Tapers”?

After pushing rates lower since 2008 to promote economic growth, in the last quarter the Federal Reserve announced the potential reduction of its stimulus plan via the tapering of its $85 billion monthly bond purchase program. On the news, rates moved higher, which means bond prices moved lower.

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