Our goal is to develop reliable proxies for future cash flows and translate them into effective forecasts of market prices for each asset class. These projections are translated into a realistic expectation for their total returns over the next 6-24 months, for comparison purposes.
Developing these outlooks requires an intensive amount of forward-looking analysis, at a variety of levels, built on a strong foundation of research. We feel this is best done, in-house, by an experienced and qualified team, that ultimately makes the portfolio decisions. That’s why we do our own research and take no short cuts in the process.
In doing so, we seek to understand two things well: the outlook for earnings, interest rates and other market variables over an 18-24 month time horizon and the value at which these proxies for cash flows are likely to be priced over that time frame. Both change. So to develop and maintain a reliable outlook requires a deep knowledge of the fundamentals that drive these changes and the ability to recognize them as they emerge.