Regional Specialists Review May 2015
It's not exactly the apocalypse, but in early 2015 we have encountered Four Horsemen of sorts: Cold and snowy winter weather. West Coast port closures and a related work slowdown. A strong U.S. dollar. Oil-sector retrenchment.
Much in economic growth and financial markets hinges on whether these four factors are temporary or long-lived. Our view? They're both, though perhaps not as you might think. Specifically we feel that the harsher-than-normal weather and port problems will be reversed rather quickly. As to the U.S. dollar and oil-patch weakness, we're living through their harshest impacts as we speak, but, in another 3-9 months, we could see some reversal and may actually see their symbiotic value come through. Whether that will be enough to reverse tepid profit growth, though...